Florida vs Vanderbilt: pick, predictions, broadcast, odds, soccer game time, live stream, tv channel
Image Credit: Michael nash
With two SEC losses in the past three weeks and most of their goals reaching just five games this season, the No.20 Florida Gators are looking to regroup on Saturday for a showdown with the Vanderbilt Commodores where the the most notable scenario may well be the helmets and uniforms that UF dons for the game. (Much more on this below.)
Those discussion threads aside, it should be a cakewalk for the Gators, who come in as more than six touchdown favorites against a team that lost 62-0 to No.2 Georgia just a few weeks ago. Perhaps more than anything, Florida maybe playing itself in this game.
Will we see movement in the quarterback? Junior redshirt Emory Jones has improved dramatically over the past three weeks, but the lack of a passing threat for the Gators is clearly a problem. Redshirt rookie Anthony Richardson returned last week and looked healthy but barely saw the pitch. Maybe he gets an extended run in this game, especially if Florida takes a significant lead early on.
Head coach Dan Mullen also declined to go into details of UF’s injury report when he entered that game. Whether that means he plans to rest a slew of players before Florida hits the road to face LSU next week remains to be seen, but fans should certainly expect to see the Gators without a few normal starters on the pitch. .
As for what will happen in the game, scroll down for our prediction and choices. Anything other than a relative walk in the park would likely be a disappointment for a program in need of a good game after an inexorable road loss last week.
What will happen on Saturday when Florida host Vanderbilt for the Homecoming? Let’s find out.
Tale of the Band
|No. 20 Florida Gators||Commodores Vanderbilt|
|The Head Coach||Dan Mullen||Clark Lea|
|Save||3-2 (1-2)||2-3 (0-1)|
Injuries and absences
Mullen did not provide a full injury report this week. A number of players are expected to miss the pitch as they recover from injuries ahead of next week’s game at LSU. Among these appear to be RB Malik Davis and LB Ventrell Miller.
Output (1): CB Kaiir Elam (knee)
Off season (3): LB Ventrell Miller (biceps ripped) CB Jaydon Hill (knee), DB Kamar Wilcoxson (knee)
Notable inactive (?): To be announced before kick-off
Dated: Saturday October 9 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Site: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – Gainesville, Florida [88,548]
Florida are 42-10-2 against Vanderbilt with wins in 29 of the last 30 meetings since 1989 and seven in a row since 2014. UF is also 22-2-1 against VU in Gainesville.
Under Mullen, Florida are 23-4 when they score first, 26-3 when leading at halftime, 28-2 when leading after the third quarter, 22-1 when she allows 20 points or less and 24-2 when she overtakes her opponents. The negative ratings in those last two stats have come this season to Kentucky (both) and Alabama, respectively.
UF is 7-8 when overtaken by an opponent and 6-6 in games decided by 10 points or less.
Florida is 6-9 against ranked opponents (2-3 against top five teams, 4-6 against top 10 teams) and 24-4 against unranked teams under Mullen. It’s also 12-1 against non-conference opponents.
The Gators have scored over 24 points in 30 of their last 34 games.
Florida had recorded more than 400 total offensive yards in 14 straight games, the longest such streak since at least 1981. That mark ended against Kentucky (382 yards). His 666 yards against South Florida in week two were the highest of any game under Mullen.
The Gators’ 509 total yards per game are 10th in the FBS, and the team’s 2,545 total yards are the highest in five games since 1991.
UF’s 400 rushing yards in Week 1 against FAU were the highest under Mullen and the most important for any FBS team this season. The Gators are third nationally with 292.2 rushing yards per game, and their 1,461 rushing yards in five games are the most important to the program in that span since 1975.
Florida is one of two FBS teams at the national level (Alabama) that have not lost to an opponent who has finished the season in a loss record since 2004.
UF has scored in 415 straight games, an NCAA record.
Prediction and analysis
Disseminate: Florida -39 | WHERE : 59.5
Before I start here, as I always say with such a big spread: don’t pick this game. OK, with that out of the way, let’s talk about trends. The Gators are 22-0 overall when favored by 35 or more points since 1995, although they are only 11-10-1 ATS in that span. Since Steve Spurrier left, Florida are 7-2-1 ATS in such situations with a 2-0-1 ATS record under Mullen. However, how many of those games faced off against SEC opponents? The answer is just two, both against Vanderbilt in 2001 and 1995.
So how are we going to break this game down? Let’s start by saying that Florida is unlikely to inflict the same injury on Vanderbilt as Georgia two weeks ago (62-0). The Bulldogs’ defense is simply outstanding, and while the Gators have played much better defensively, they don’t turn teams around at the same rate, which usually results in extra possessions and more opportunities to score points.
Florida should be able to score at will against Vanderbilt, but they are also in a position where they should play from the more vanilla sections of their playbook given that a road game against LSU is next week followed by the largest outdoor cocktail in the world in three weeks. Additionally, UF will likely let sick players rest, especially in the second half, which could open up late scoring opportunities for the visitors. We saw how the Gators game was planned against FAU and South Florida. While I expect this to be a more dominant performance, I don’t think the goal here is for Florida to blow Vandy’s doors down.
The Gators have only covered that gap against the Commodores once since 1993 – two years ago in 2019. I’m going to stay conservative and assume Florida fails to cover the game falling under the total, but still once, two reminders. (1) Don’t pick this game. (2) It might be best to clear me this season given how unpredictable UF has been for five weeks.
Records 2021: ATS chooses 1-4 | O / U select 2-2-1
“Florida will wear retro orange helmets with an interlocking 1970s UF logo as well as 1960s blue jerseys and white pants for the homecoming. This is the third year in a row that the Gators have worn their recently reintroduced homecoming uniforms.
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